Stanford Social Innovation Review

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Jan Leeman on Strategic Planning
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As a foundation that invests its money in other organizations, one of the aspects of assessing an organization is risk. How would you define risk? And since everything comes with a risk, what are the good risks as opposed to the bad risks? What questions should one raise?

I think there's something to be learned from the for-profit world about good risks and bad risks. Venture capitalists are in the same position foundations are -- they invest in other organizations with the goal of helping that organization succeed. Venture capitalists divide risk into different categories, including execution risk (can the leadership do what needs to be done?), market risk (is the customer going to buy?), competitive risk (is there another company offering something similar/better?), funding risk (can the organization raise the funds it needs to sustain itself and grow?), intellectual property risk (does the company have the right to use the intellectual property it is using?) and technology risk (can the technology that's needed be developed?). When an investment is being considered, VCs will score, quantitatively or qualitatively, the investment on each of these risk categories. When an organization is new, there are many unanswered questions, and therefore many related risks to those questions. As the organization answers those questions, those associated risks are minimized, and the value of the company increases. One important aspect of venture investing that's related to dividing up risk is the practice of staging investments. New companies with lots of unanswered questions generally raise only small amounts of money, and as the company grows and proves itself, investors are willing to invest more in the company.

I have one additional point based on my experience as an entrepreneur and investor. Good risks are those that the organization can work to minimize. Bad risks are those that are outside of the organization's control and perhaps even knowledge.

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I think there are other risks associated with funding nonprofit programs besides the economic, legal, and technology ones you mention. Having been the first consultant to walk in the door of numerous newly funded nonprofit initiatives, I found that about 90 percent of them were no where near ready to leave the ground. Insufficient funding was usually not the problem. A closer look often revealed a deficiency in one of three fundamental correlates of program success: 1) reasonability 2) feasibility, 3) measurability. Translated into risks, that’s idea risk, implementation risk, and evidence risk - all “good” risks by your definition.

Although customary due diligence processes guarantee financial, organizational, legal, and management soundness, they often do not encompass measures designed to assess more subtle predictors of success. They do not fully reveal whether programs have realistic expectations, sound logic, or the ability to objectively demonstrate whether or not their efforts will make a difference. When programs are not assessed for these risks upstream they potentially waste resources, provide false hopes, and, most importantly, deny recipients the services they were promised to receive.

»» Posted by: Susan Eliot on March 17, 2008 12:43 PM

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Many categories of risk can be used to assess the total risk picture of an organization, but who is responsible for them, what can be done about them, and what they mean to different “stakeholders” can be very different.  Financial risk is one thing, market risk another, insurable risk (liability and property) another still.  These categories can be greatly expanded to examine many things.  Some of them are quantifiable, others are qualitative. 

A foundation looking to put in money for a particular program probably has different risk concerns than a general funder or investor, or a lender, or an insurer, and so on. Thus what are good risk and bad risks depends very much on who is asking.

A foundation that wants to fund particular program should probably look at (1) whether there are good financial controls in place to segregate the funding so it remains dedicated to the particular program; (2) the quality of the staff to carry out the program, both existing staff new hires; (3) the quality of the management to carry out the program, including (a) record-keeping and (b) quality control/supervision; (3) suitability of facilities to the task—is it safe, does the lease more or less match the length of the funding (e.g. a 5 year lease for a 2 year program could expose the organization to a 3 year deficiency); (4) suitability of liability and errors & omissions insurance in place; (5) market risk and competitive risks, meaning who else is doing this work, who might do it better, why might the program fail, and so on; (6) government issues and interests (what politicians and departments want this to succeed, what might get in the way).

These are just some things to look at.

»» Posted by: Harold Weston on March 27, 2008 12:26 PM

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I fully believe that successful philanthropy can and should require due diligence to address the economic, legal and technological risks identified by Jan Leeman.  Thought and consideration should also be given to the idea, implementation, and evidence risks Susan Elliot eloquently identified. 

But the most complicated aspects of risk management for foundations stems from the fact that, with many of the problems the nonprofit sector tries to solve, there is no known right answer.  Will that after school program reduce teenage gang participation?  Will that job training program for former convicts reduce recidivism? Will that water treatment program reduce disease in Africa?  With all of these, and many, many others, there is a real risk that the answer is “No” or “Not as much as we had hoped”. 

But managing risk and avoiding the potential of negative or disappointing outcomes completely should not be confused.  As foundations face increasing pressure to demonstrate their effectiveness, they should also resist the tendency to define success only as investment in successful programs or projects.  Philanthropic success must also include a process of knowledge collection dissemination.  Require fundees to have assess and report upon their outcomes; share the results with other funders and nonprofits addressing the same concerns; learn from prior grants.  But also take risks.

Because if foundations limit their investment solely to proven projects - it is highly unlikely that we will ever find the answers we seek to many of society’s problems.  Someone must be the first to back a new idea, methodology, or treatment option. Someone must fund the “R&D;” of social benefit innovation and progress – to assume the risk of failure in the hopes of finding immeasurable success. For many reasons, foundations are in the best position to do this.

»» Posted by: Jenn Lammers on March 27, 2008 01:48 PM

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